Rapid Evaluation of Coronavirus Illness Severity (RECOILS) in intensive care: Development and validation of a prognostic tool for in-hospital mortality. (2024)

Affiliation

• Plecko D; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
• Bennett N; Department of Mathematics, Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
• Mårtensson J; Department of Mathematics, Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
• Dam TA; Department of Physiology and Pharmacology, Section of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
• Entjes R; Department of Perioperative Medicine and Intensive Care, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden.
• Rettig TCD; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
• Dongelmans DA; Department of Intensive Care, Admiraal De Ruyter Ziekenhuis, Goes, The Netherlands.
• Boelens AD; Department of Intensive Care, Amphia Ziekenhuis, Breda, The Netherlands.
• Rigter S; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
• Hendriks SHA; Antonius Ziekenhuis Sneek, Sneek, The Netherlands.
• de Jong R; Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care, St. Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands.
• Kamps MJA; Intensive Care, Albert Schweitzerziekenhuis, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
• Peters M; Intensive Care, Bovenij Ziekenhuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
• Karakus A; Intensive Care, Catharina Ziekenhuis Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands.
• Gommers D; Intensive Care, Canisius Wilhelmina Ziekenhuis, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
• Ramnarain D; Department of Intensive Care, Diakonessenhuis Hospital, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
• Wils EJ; Department of Intensive Care, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
• Achterberg S; Intensive Care, ETZ Tilburg, Tilburg, The Netherlands.
• Nowitzky R; Department of Intensive Care, Franciscus Gasthuis & Vlietland, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
• van den Tempel W; ICU, Haaglanden Medisch Centrum, Den Haag, The Netherlands.
• de Jager CPC; Intensive Care, HagaZiekenhuis, Den Haag, The Netherlands.
• Nooteboom FGCA; Department of Intensive Care, Ikazia Ziekenhuis Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
• Oostdijk E; Department of Intensive Care, Jeroen Bosch Ziekenhuis, Den Bosch, The Netherlands.
• Koetsier P; Intensive Care, Laurentius Ziekenhuis, Roermond, The Netherlands.
• Cornet AD; ICU, Maasstad Ziekenhuis Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
• Reidinga AC; Intensive Care, Medisch Centrum Leeuwarden, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands.
• de Ruijter W; Department of Intensive Care, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands.
• Bosman RJ; ICU, SEH, BWC, Martiniziekenhuis, Groningen, The Netherlands.
• Frenzel T; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Northwest Clinics, Alkmaar, The Netherlands.
• Urlings-Strop LC; ICU, OLVG, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
• de Jong P; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
• Smit EGM; Intensive Care, Reinier de Graaf Gasthuis, Delft, The Netherlands.
• Cremer OL; Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, Slingeland Ziekenhuis, Doetinchem, The Netherlands.
• Mehagnoul-Schipper DJ; Intensive Care, Spaarne Gasthuis, Haarlem en Hoofddorp, The Netherlands.
• Faber HJ; Intensive Care, UMC Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
• Lens J; Intensive Care, VieCuri Medisch Centrum, Venlo, The Netherlands.
• Brunnekreef GB; ICU, WZA, Assen, The Netherlands.
• Festen-Spanjer B; ICU, ICU, IJsselland Ziekenhuis, Capelle aan den IJssel, The Netherlands.
• Dormans T; Department of Intensive Care, Ziekenhuisgroep Twente, Almelo, The Netherlands.
• de Bruin DP; Intensive Care, Ziekenhuis Gelderse Vallei, Ede, The Netherlands.
• Lalisang RCA; Intensive care, Zuyderland MC, Heerlen, The Netherlands.
• Vonk SJJ; Pacmed, Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
• Haan ME; Pacmed, Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
• Fleuren LM; Pacmed, Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
• Thoral PJ; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
• Elbers PWG; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
• Bellomo R; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

The prediction of in-hospital mortality for ICU patients with COVID-19 is fundamental to treatment and resource allocation. The main purpose was to develop an easily implemented score for such prediction.

METHODS:

This was an observational, multicenter, development, and validation study on a national critical care dataset of COVID-19 patients. A systematic literature review was performed to determine variables possibly important for COVID-19 mortality prediction. Using a logistic multivariable model with a LASSO penalty, we developed the Rapid Evaluation of Coronavirus Illness Severity (RECOILS) score and compared its performance against published scores.

RESULTS:

Our development (validation) cohort consisted of 1480 (937) adult patients from 14 (11) Dutch ICUs admitted between March 2020 and April 2021. Median age was 65 (65) years, 31% (26%) died in hospital, 74% (72%) were males, average length of ICU stay was 7.83 (10.25) days and average length of hospital stay was 15.90 (19.92) days. Age, platelets, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, pH, blood urea nitrogen, temperature, PaCO2, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score measured within +/-24h of ICU admission were used to develop the score. The AUROC of RECOILS score was 0.75 (CI 0.71-0.78) which was higher than that of any previously reported predictive scores (0.68 [CI 0.64-0.71], 0.61 [CI 0.58-0.66], 0.67 [CI 0.63-0.70], 0.70 [CI 0.67-0.74] for ISARIC 4C Mortality Score, SOFA, SAPS-III, and age, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS:

Using a large dataset from multiple Dutch ICUs, we developed a predictive score for mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU, which outperformed other predictive scores reported so far.

• https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8652966
• https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/aas.13991